Background: the road to actual returns
On December 24, 2021, the Supreme Court (Hoge Raad) made a landmark ruling: the then-current Box 3 system violated property rights and the principle of equality. The system assumed taxpayers earned a high fictitious return, while reality — especially for savers — was much lower.
As a result, the Tax Authority (Belastingdienst) had to provide 'rechtsherstel' (legal remedy) for the years 2017-2022. Millions of taxpayers received refunds or revised assessments.
The current system (2023-2026)
While awaiting the definitive new law, an interim system based on categories applies. Each asset category has its own fictitious return:
| Category | Fictitious return | Tax (36%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bank savings | 1,44% | 0,52% |
| Investments (other assets) | 6,04% | 2,17% |
| Real estate | 6,04% | 2,17% |
| Debts (deductible) | 2,47% | -0,89% |
Calculation example — current situation
Situation: €200,000 fully invested (no fiscal partner)
The new law: Wet Werkelijk Rendement (2028)
The Dutch Lower House has approved the bill. The law introduces taxation on actually achieved returns — and that is a fundamental change.
What counts as return
- Dividends and interest payments
- Unrealised capital gains (annual increase)
- Rental income
- Annual real estate value increase
- Sale gains upon realisation
Compensating measures
- Losses can be offset against future gains
- Tax-free allowance remains
- Tax rate stays at 36%
- Transitional arrangements for existing positions
The compounding problem
The biggest disadvantage of the new Box 3 law is the effect on compound returns. Every euro you pay in tax on unrealised gains can no longer grow.
20-year projection: €200,000 at 7% return
* Indicative calculation. Use our calculator for your personal situation.
Impact by asset class
Savers
LimitedInterest is already a 'realised' return. At low savings rates, the tax is limited. Relatively little change compared to the current system.
Stock/ETF investors
HighHit hardest. Annual mark-to-market taxation on price gains, even without selling. Large impact on buy-and-hold strategy.
Real estate investors
Very highDouble levy: rental income AND property value increase are taxed. Real estate is illiquid, worsening the liquidity problem.
Private pension savings
StructuralNet wealth at retirement age significantly lower due to annual levies. Longer horizons are proportionally harder hit.
Legal uncertainty — the law may still change
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